A decade following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and caused disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the political, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an highly split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but very few government figures or activists are willing to participate with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author advocates unity or the status quo. Both writes two articles that seek impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and societal figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates cover national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has got important lessons to learn from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster should participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
